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Supply-Side Crudenomics
With front-month WTI futures suffering their worst 2 days since 2016 into the start of the US long weekend Friday and a sudden proliferation of "lower for longer is dead" analyses, crude has...
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Arm Me With Carry, Conte Drop A Load On 'Em...BTP, How Can I Explain It?
With Italian debt markets feeling an awful lot like everyone's old friend Wile E. Coyote after a bad run in with The Market Formerly Known As The Roadrunner, the old saws are at it again: of course...
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Argentina: Chronicle of an IMF Bailout Foretold
Greetings Macro Man Community--thank you to the new contributors who have done well taking up the TMM mantle. Itâs great to see that the Macro Man tradition is carrying on. This isnât me coming out...
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William Tell wake up, Switzerland has gone mad!
William Tell contemplating SNB's portfolioOn June 10th, Swiss voters will cast their votes on the Vollgeld referendum: "For crisis-safe money: Money creation by the National Bank only! (Sovereign Money...
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Strong And Stable, Valuations Edition
It's fun and trendy to point out valuations are elevated for a variety of financial assets these days, though thanks to the global bond market selloff over the last several months all manner of fixed...
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EFF-IOER: What's Next?
Same as Cackalack Capital, this is my first post. I joined the troops after MM asked for some help. I am honoured and thrilled to get the chance at it. Please feel free to contact me with any...
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LOIS Maximus
Since this is my first post, hello! In the words most commonly used during the reign of Mike Francesa on WFAN, long time first time. I've agreed to do some posts since MM hung up the shingle a couple...
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One Sour Kiwi: Yours! On Another Clip of NZD
As we have discussed in the past, the dollar is finally bottoming. Perhaps the market is finally starting to care about real yield differentials again.If you thought this dollar move "has legs" to run,...
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Gold Hedge Not Working?
A couple of quick things today:1) Just wanted to take the chance and thank Shawn again for the many insights over the last year or so. I thoroughly enjoyed and learned from your posts. With that said,...
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Help Wanted
Well, as you can see from the post below there now a vacancy at the helm of the Good Ship MM. I am still occupied penning an institutional version and befouling the airwaves at Bloomberg, and while...
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AUD and CAD Weighed Down By Higher Funding Rates
In a recent conversation I almost broke out into laughter when a trader asked me, "do you trade value or momentum?" Yeah, well let me tell you brother...you don't survive in this business by nailing...
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An exercise in connecting the dots: the Libor-OIS spread
The Libor-OIS spread is such a technical topic that I will leave the details to professionals with a much more profound understanding of it (plus Shawn already wrote a very good post about it). I am...
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This Is What It Sounds Like...When the Regime Dies
After a few go-go years in the stock market, it is easy to forget what a choppy market looks like. Here it is folks. Simple as that. I can cite any number of reasons, valuations, growth...
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The Anatomy of a LIBOR Panic: New Wides For LIBOR/OIS
Welcome back MM readers--apologies for the unscheduled hiatus last week. I spent a few days enjoying the technological miracles of the US healthcare system. Keen readers may notice I almost never make...
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CAD and NAFTA Risk: Show Me The Money
Part of the genesis of this blog is to provide a historical record of trade ideas, and just as important, the justification behind them. And looking back now, it appears I like to talk about CAD, which...
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Why is LIBOR Moving Higher?
Indeed, volatility is back. BTD may not be dead, and as I have mentioned here, Iâm not convinced the bull market is dead and spoos are heading back to 2000 (yet). However, the systematic gamma...
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A Call to Arms: Give Us your Best Trade Idea for 2018...Can We Beat Goldman?
When I posted a retrospective on Goldman Sachsâ 2017 Top Trade ideas, I thought the internet would jump at the chance to whack the squid with a shovel. The MM audience reacted with a collective yawn,...
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Trump Tax Cuts - Will This Make Volatility Great Again?
A quick Public Service Announcement:Seems like yesterday when we Trump was elected and equities were off to the races - prompting one of the biggest market surprises we've witnessed in a long time.The...
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Back-trading: Let's Unpack The Goldman Sachs Top Trades for 2017
Donât ever let anyone tell you this business isnât hard. If it wasnât, everyone would do it. Making investment decisions with millions of dollars is not only hard work, it is by definition...
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Long-end US Rates Continue to Outperform--Worth a Fade Here.
On Monday, I brought up what 2018 could bring from the Fed, and the possibility that the FOMC might have to react to higher headline inflation, even if it is being driven by higher commodity prices....
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